Sunday, December 27, 2015

The economics of climate change, sustainablity, veganism, health and then some

"There is, however, a moral basis for the vegetarian diet for which the indeterminate value of an animal’s life takes on irrelevance. And that moral basis is a concern for the environment, a value as absolute as the value we all place on human life, since humanity will not long survive on a poisoned planet. To be an environmentalist who happens to eat meat is like being a philanthropist who doesn’t happen to give to charity."  (Mad Cowboy: Plain Truth from the Cattle Rancher Who Won't Eat Meat" by Howard F. Lyman, Glen Merzer")
Rational capital allocation is not our forte as a society. Indulging human foibles is more like it. The dialog about climate change is a case in point. If 51% of GHG-emissions is due to animal husbandry and the self-destructive habit of eating meat, and moreover the our nastiest health problems (heart disease, osteoporosis, cancer, CJD, antibiotic resistant bacteria et al.) are partially or wholly attributable to the same self-destructive habit, then why is it not on the agenda for serious discussion?

For me, there is a personal side to the story, I was raised vegetarian, as in lacto-vegetarian, and though I realized a long time ago that milk was for baby cows and not for human consumption, I loved cheese. From my late teens to my early twenties I became more of an omnivore, but after age forty, I simply noticed a tendency to vegetarianism, ever so slowly, but without any particularly strong commitment. I simply drifted towards a more vegetarian lifestyle. In the last ten years health issues made me gradually more and more interested, and I got briefly interested in the Esselstyn diet that was made famous when former President Bill Clinton switched from Mickey D's to veganism. The first time I read the Esselstyn book, I was half-hearted about it. An old friend and I were both experimenting with this diet for a while, and kept some ideas from it, without necessarily going through with it, but the drift continued, aided by the growing realization that even if I did not have any symptoms of hearth disease, why wait till I did? In the last two years all dairy was permanently phased out. For Christmas a giant apple-pie came along, and while I enjoyed it, I also informed Santa Claus that this would be my last apple-pie until after my funeral. Who needs all that white flour and sugar? Most importantly the last year especially, I found myself enjoying food more as I discovered more and more vegan recipes that I really liked.

Meanwhile I am into planning the energy economics for some real-estate developments, and looking into vertical agriculture options in an urban setting, while at the same time I am listening to feedback from my community, Community Board #9 in the Bronx, where a young mother of two stated0 in a recent planning session that she did not want another fast food restaurant in our district, and a young man in the same session was polling people on the idea of establishing a food co-op in our area. But a local supermarket just lost their lease, and that neighborhood is screaming for a half-way decent supermarket to fill the vacuum.

Against that personal backdrop, I have been reading Howard Lyman's Mad Cowboy book, and watching some documentaries on YouTube, including:
  • Cowspiracy, a brilliant documentary of our collective economical and environmental and nutritional insanity from 2014, which included an appearance by Howard Lyman, the Mad Cowboy.
  • Then came Earthlings, another brilliant piece on the gruesome realities of  the animal husbandry system.
  • Next was Gary Yourovsky, who verbalizes it all brilliantly, here, including the most viewed speech in Israeli history here.
  • And finally, I had to revisit the whole Howard Lyman story, which I was only vaguely aware of when Oprah and he got sued in 1996, but now it was time to refresh that experience, and this documentary about the Mad Cowboy just his the spot.
  • Since I first wrote this post, it got even better, see the story of the Rowdy Girl Sanctuary, yet another rancher to vegan story.
And at the final end it is the economist in me who basically realizes that economics will prevail in the end, and we are well on our way to veganism. It will take a few generations, but choices are multiplying now, with more and more vegan food choices, and now even fast food restaurants, it is clear that change is on the agenda. The group of people who turn vegan and get off their meds is growing - the perfect answer to our out of control healthcare system, so not only can the planet not afford animal husbandry, we cannot afford the health consequences of eating all that meat and dairy. I had a home visit from a nurse practitioner from my health insurance provider, and the guy fell of his chair, for just the week before the doctor had taken me off all meds, or rather confirmed that I was doing great without them - not that I was taking that many but still... On top of that, I know I feel more stamina at the gym.

One of the big things I am realizing about net-zero development is that moving combustion out of residential spaces is one of the biggest things we can do for indoor air quality, and this in turn adds to real estate values. Insights like that are pretty potent if you live in the asthma capital of the world, the Bronx. So there is a straightforward connection between economics, environment and health. 

The same goes for vertical agriculture: it is now economical to grow fresh vegetables in an urban setting, and eliminate chemical agriculture, and thousands of miles of transportation, to get better, fresher, healthier vegetables, as you can see in this little video from Terrashpere

And the transition to more and more vegan living will eliminate the most obvious food safety problems, a vast array of health problems, as well as unsustainable agriculture in the service of animal husbandry. Again, economics, environment and health all go hand in hand. And the forces that drives us towards a more sustainable economy are absolutely inexorable. Veganism is a new idea today, or so it seems to many, but it is unavoidable economically. We are literally at the point of realizing that we are feeding the pigs at the expense of human beings, and wiping out the rain forests to raise cattle, which is the most insane misuse of land that ever was. It is that inexorable force of economics and sustainability, that is driving us towards a more sustainable, and therefore increasingly vegan, lifestyle.

Since I originally wrote this post, I have also started a blog on vegan living in my hood.

Saturday, March 7, 2015

Solar PV and the Metastasis of GHG-emissions

Today, solar PV is all the rage. We're at it again, jumping on a technology before we have figured out the right way to use it. Wall street is loving it, but we are getting way ahead of ourselves... just remind me, how do we spell bubble again? As a society, it seems we keep looking for a silver bullet to fix our problem, and this is not realistic.
It does not matter that solar PV is "cheaper" in terms of component pricing. Solar thermal produces about five times the amount of energy for the same square area, so unless the cost of real estate is zero, solar thermal should be the winner in that battle. Granted, solar PV tends to be easier to integrate, but there is an obvious issue here, particularly in areas large urban areas, where you don't have one square inch to waste.
To use an analogy, if one year our government provides a tax incentive to sell more two-seater vehicles, and a father of five comes home with a two-seater instead of a family car, arguing that it was so cheap, most of us would side with the wife, if she divorced him. The five kids would have to take the bus from then on. Evidently, this would be a case of false economy, for it cannot solve your problem. How come we understand the fallacy of this proposition, yet in solar PV marketing, this is what is routinely done - selling people a solution that does not fit because it is "cheap." If in doubt, refer to the tax incentives.
Just like the two-seater cannot solve the transportation problem of a family of seven, solar PV panels cannot solve the energy problems of most homes and buildings in northern climes. In the south, it may work fine if your home is all electric, and you have enough roof space to economically generate adequate electricity, but in the north your energy bills are likely to be 70% oil and 30% electric, and yet the solar companies want you to jump up and down because they can save you 10% on your electric bills. That's the assumption anyway. It does not amount to the proverbial hill of beans, because 10% of your electric bill is 3% of your overall energy bills.
It actually gets worse, because the implicit assumption is that your roof space is valueless, which is likely not the case. If nothing else, that same roof space could be used for solar thermal equipment, which produces 4 to 5 times as much energy per square foot as does solar PV. Alternatively, one or more wind-turbines might be possible, and in all of these situations, it is one or the other, so you have to figure out what gives you the most bang for the buck.

Entropy and Climate Change

One of the first few things to realize about the whole climate change conundrum is that it is not solvable. The best we may be able to do is produce less entropy, and decelerate the decline of our physical universe. But in the end it's a lost cause, or, as Keynes would have it: "In the long run, we're all dead." The case in point is the Toyota Prius, which has a lifecycle environemental impact that is worse than a Hummer. So dream on.
For those who want to get into the final nitty-gritty of the issues, there is no better introduction that Alex Marchand's new book, The Universe is Virtual. Unless and until someone comes up with a better alternative to the second law of thermodynamics, the choices are limited, but right at the moment, the process is outright irrational, and we may be able to do better than we are. Again, the only thing we can do on the physical level, is to moderate the impact we are having, the problem is not solvable in any meaningful way as long as the laws of physics hold. If you want to stick to lighter fare, Jeremy Rifkin's, Entropy, is still always a fun read, although a bit dated.

The solar PV fallacy, oh to be green and foolish

These days the FTC has taken on greenwashing, and hopefully may be curbing some of the most egregious abuses, but if they got serious, very little of environmental business or products would be left standing, and certainly solar PV in its current form would have to be heavily restricted for the deceptive claims it makes.
What needs to be understood is that if we define the problem haphazardly, we are unlikely to solve the problem that we are presumably seeking to solve, in this case, reducing green house gases (GHG-emissions). To the promoters of solar PV, the problems is how much money can we make on selling solar PV installations (very little), or on financing solar PV (maybe something more), time will tell if it can be done profitably, but the current model of solar PPAs, solar leases, or even innovative lending like SolarCity's new MyPower program, will likely not be enough to make solar PV really viable in the long run.

At single family scale - Solar PV disappoints

The exception is if you live down south and you have enough roof real estate to generate close to all the electricity you really want, perhaps solar PV makes sense. But up north the problem remains that electricity is 20-30% of the energy budget, and tying up all your money and roof real estate for a project that saves you a few percentage points on your overall energy bills, and locks you out of solving the whole problem categorically is not a smart decision.
The current sales paradigm for solar PV mistakes a marginal cost savings for the basis of a capital improvement to the property, and a permanent alteration of its energy infrastructure. The result is an impairment of the physical asset (property) and the balance sheet (liability), and the simple most obvious problem is that if the next buyer does not want to assume the remaining liability, it can depress the value of a property, as reported by Bloomberg here. Typically the risks include:
  • The lease or PPA may be under water at the time of the sale.
  • Newer solar technology may be more efficient.
  • Other technological alternatives offer superior economics.
If you are still in doubt, look at alternatives that are about to hit the market, like the Archimedes wind-turbine, and the Zonbak solar thermal solution, as well as a long-since proven solution of Geothermal Heat Pumps, which allows you to do complete central HVAC, heat your pool, and put a snowmelt in your driveway, while eliminating your oil bills.
One of the issues is that solar PV is still early in its developments, while Solar Thermal (85-95% efficiency), and geothermal (3-600% efficiency) are much higher, and mature, and wind turbines, in the right locations produce more energy per square area than solar PV does. Solar PV is now going from 15-18% efficiency and jumping by about 30% to 21-24% efficincies, while new technologies in the 30% and 40% efficiency ranges are in the pipeline for commercialization in the future.
Worse yet, as net-zero construction is growing and consistently profitable already for decades, just imagine selling your home 7 years from now when there is a new development of net-zero homes going up nearby. If those new homes offer $0 energy bills, and you are saving 3 or 5, or even 10% off your 2015 bill, what do you think that will do for the value of your property? The correct answer is: it will sell at a discount. Your investment in PV under those conditions is likely to produce a liability. You will be looking for ways to take those panels down in order not to depress the price of the house, and then you have a waste disposal problem on your hands.

At societal scale - Solar PV disappoints again

New York State has an ambitious energy plan, but it sadly lacks realism. The top-line goals are 50% reductions in GHG-emissions by 2030, and 80% by 2050, but there is very little detail on how to get there. Too many line items in the plan achieve 15-25% reductions in GHG-emissions, and are financially burdensome like solar PV. To tie up a lot of capital, and assume unnecessary 20-30 year liabilities to save 3% on your energy bills, and lock yourself permanently out of better alternatives is counter productive. We are throwing good money after bad, and mostly it is consumers who are on the hook, deceived by government incentive programs.
This first round of Solar PV-madness will prove to be regressive for climate change in the long run, because it locks properties into 25% reduction of GHG-emissions, instead of pursuing the 75%, which would make a difference. So, not only are these owners locking themselves out of the real solution, the collective effect is that we are averaging down, and ensuring we will never achieve anything like 50% GHG-reductions by 2030 or 80% by 2050.
With the current approach GHG emission reduction will be limited to something in the 20-30% range with solar PV and some energy efficiency, and GHG-emissions will metastasize into an unsolvable problem, so present programs guarantee we will never make those glorious goals of 50by30 and 80by50. It sounded good while it lasted.

It's not those batteries either - thermal batteries are free

Remember the jokes about the Fisher ballpoint that could write upside down, and cost a million dollars to develop? Presumably the Russians used pencils instead. The truth is the Russians switched to Space-pens also. The point is clear however. We humans have a terrible tendency to reinvent the wheel.
In energy solutions for buildings, thermal solutions come in the form of passive design as well as active generating technologies such as solar thermal and geothermal. Batteries are cheap: it is also known as Domestic Hot Water, or depending on the application you can have some high temperature water storage. Overall, this is far cheaper and safer than the chemical batteries that are the norm for Solar PV.

Conclusion: time for method over myth

We have had the Internet bubble, and the subprime mortgage bubble, but now we have the budding distributed solar PV bubble. Some of the same people are promoting it, for the securitization machine was looking for work after the bust of subprime. Once rational analysis gains the upper hand--which may take a long time--this bubble of solar subprime will also burst, and it won't be pretty.
Having said that, there are plenty of good applications for Solar PV, but the mass market that is currently forecast will dry up sooner than later. Serious GHG emission reduction will have to wait until the Solar PV-mania gives way to a more methodical approach using Solar thermal, and other solutions, providing a whole-house solution, not a 3% savings on your bills.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Energy Efficiency Exposed

Blissfully, even the New York Times is starting to let some light in on one of the biggest consumer frauds in history, energy efficiency. With an opinion piece, The Problem With Energy Efficiency, by 
Energy Efficiency as it is promoted today, is a consumer fraud, it is a way of selling energy efficient products without the guilt.  The Energy Star program is the cheerleader for this misdirection, for it encourages incremental fixes, not radical solutions. There is not really any perpetrator other than the collective public delusion that energy efficiency will somehow magically bail us out, but the short-term beneficiaries are the utility industry, and the manufacturers of energy efficiency technologies, and property owners are paying the economic penalty for failing to do the economics of their energy decisions properly. The presumed benefit of energy efficiency is an unexamined assumption that seems sensible, but does not work in practice. Yet there is mathematical certainty that it cannot, because it is a limit function, which MUST produce  diminishing returns, as I have extensively documented on this blog.
The fundamental deceit which underlies the mistake is the labeling of energy efficiency as "green," and conflating it with renewable energy, and further to train clueless property owners to pursue energy efficiency on an incremental basis, as though it were additive, which it is not, because of the problem of diminishing returns, so it becomes a permanent money drain. This energy efficiency-driven approach amounts to a greenwash of carbon energy, and keeps us hooked. The result has been a massive market failure, and significant capital destruction. To this day, government is encouraging this pattern of helter-skelter spending on efficiency, which diverts resources from potentially productive investment in worthwhile projects that build value for investors. The beneficiaries of this confused guidance have been the utilities and energy companies. Current government programs are very successful if the goal were to save energy companies and utilities.

Environmental and Economical Fraud: Energy Efficiency

Fortunately, there are a growing number of critical voices who have taken to uncovering the misleading claims of energy efficiency, and hopefully to put us on the track to productive investment.
  1.  First there is Steve Hallet's excellent book, The Efficiency Trap, which argues the case on a parallel to over specialization in nature. Clearly if the problem is over-dependence on carbon-based energy systems, it is not merely like the Jevons paradox, that there is blowback, in the sense that increased efficiency reduces the cost of energy and thus raises demand. There is a deeper effect of throwing good money after bad, which is ridiculous at a time when renewable technologies are becoming easily cost competitive on the margin.
  2. Then there is David Owen's The Conundrum,  which deconstructs all our thinking about energy, and debunking solutions which make the problems worse.  It exposes the fallacies of energy efficiency and alternative energy on a deeper level.
These two books here are eye-opening, and will make sure that you never look at energy efficiency or even some of the renewable energy discussions the same way. This is the place to start to sort out the chaff from the wheat and learn to think for yourself about energy solutions.

Energy Investment, not Energy Savings

My focus continues to be on the viewpoint of the individual property owner, in terms of how to create maximum value from renewable energy retrofits. The only meaningful way to evaluate the issue is to look at your property value, and how you can increase it by going renewable. There are people who want to live net zero out of social responsibility, or religious conviction, but that is not interesting to me. It is interesting to me only when it is done on the basis of sound economics.
The trap we are falling into as a society is that typical programs we now have benefit either the utilities, the energy companies, or the manufacturers of e.g. solar panels. No program is looking at it from the standpoint of the economics of the property owner, and that is the only possibly meaningful way of approaching the issue. And, in many cases you will find that, with the right analysis, there is a hell of a lot that can be done, for energy is a big part of your running cost in a house.

Energy Efficiency done right

The right energy efficiency definition would make it clear that you first need to decide what your energy system should be, or you risk throwing good money after bad, and making your bad system more efficient, which is what happens a lot today. In other words, if it is done right, you would first implement renewable energy wherever it is economical and make the whole system as efficient as possible.
If you're spending $1,000/mo on energy, and you can eliminate 75% of that bill with a renewable energy retrofit that is $9,000 annualy in cash available to finance your conversion. And when you do make the changeover, you now have a permanent hedge against energy price increases, and mostly renewable technology has lower maintenance costs than fossil fuel burning equipment does. Most importantly, as part of your life-cycle planning for your property, you would consider ALL renewable energy technologies and prioritize them according to the highest yield, which today looks approximately as follows:
  1. Solar Thermal energy 85-95% efficiency.
  2. Geothermal 400% efficiency (it consumes electricity to run, but you might be able to generate your own.)
  3. Wind energy gives more bang for the buck in the right location than does solar PV, certainly when considering the footprint, so per square foot of space the yield is much greater than Solar PV.
  4. Solar PV, with efficiencies currently going from the high teens to the low 20s.
  5. Various passive thermal measures, insulation, glazing, thermal storage, and so on will complement the picture.
The currently prevailing paradigm is one of incremental "energy savings," and as a result people never treat these decisions as investments, but they serially fritter away the money, and the more 'efficient' they get, the more the power company is ensured of retaining their business. This is one good reason why power companies are happy to finance these efficiency programs.
We need to shift our focus to investing in energy, not merely saving energy, and for that we need always to have a 30 year energy plan, which includes life-cycle planning for all major componentry, such as boilers, and a/c plant. We need to realize that thermal technologies, both active and passive, are often not as easy on a retrofit basis, but if you can do it, they give the most bang for the buck.
Under the incremental approach, people buy e.g. solar panels and they save 10% on 30% of their energy usage, so they lowered their bills by 3%. The same amount of roof space, if it were used for a solar thermal system, could eliminate 70, 80, or even 90% of the energy bills, particularly if it is combined with passive thermal solutions.

Conclusion

Energy Efficiency and energy savings sounds good but they are the wrong approach for long term asset values, especially when they are done on an incremental basis, and without a plan. They are a greenwash of carbon-energy.
Investment in permanent energy infrastructure to improve asset values is focused on creating the maximal increase in your property value with a renewable energy retrofit and energy efficiency, instead of a greenwash of carbon-energy with energy efficiency alone.

Saturday, July 26, 2014

EPA Energy Star Home Energy Yardstick: a dangerous toy

Recently I explored the EPA's Energy Star Home Energy Yardstick to see if it could help some people get a handle on their home energy problems, and the conclusion is it offers a few useful features, but mostly it is detrimental to your financial health. In some ways it really is worse than useless, for financially it will with certainty steer people completely wrong.
Home Energy Yardstick will give you some useful information, by showing you where your home is on a relative scale of energy efficiency, and therefore the potential for improvement. It might give you some ideas of what to look for, but it does nothing to help you sort through the economic priorities of how to create an optimal energy retrofit for your property. That failure sets people up to go about upgrading their property in totally helter-skelter fashion, and lose tons of money in the process.
One of the periodic criticisms of the Energy Star® program has been that it's being abused by vendors, by misreporting the performance of products in order to get the qualification. That is bad enough, but the Home Energy Yardstick program systematically steers people the wrong way, and lacks critically important features that could make it useful, specifically:
  • It focuses on energy efficiency, which tends to lead to a decision path of least cost incremental energy savings, which produces diminishing returns and is a financial death trap.
  • It focuses on widgets, not on plans, and it focuses on costs, not value.
  • It does not capture the holistic, "systems" view of the problem and the potential solutions. The problem and the solution are 4-dimensional, not three. It should be mandatory first to create a 30 year NPV calculation to analyze the value of various energy improvements from an investment standpoint.
The unintended consequence of the model that this program effectively  fosters an unwitting collusion of equipment vendors, energy companies and finance companies, all using this information against property owners, and in the process they are stripping equity from property owners, by ensuring completely suboptimal outcomes from an energy and environmental standpoint. If guaranteed failure were the mission, this would be the way to do it.
Energy Star is a sort of "Good Housekeeping" seal of approval for a sales program of any number of energy efficiency products and services that provide partial "solutions" but never add up to a solution for the real problem, except they'll keep the property owner paying forever, and allow politicians to always claim progress, while they can rest comfortably in the knowledge that we'll never get there, so next year they can still claim the same thing, ad infinitum, while consumer spend themselves silly on "Energy Star" products. Energy efficiency is one of those feel good ideas that is accepted without further examination, but falls apart if you ever take a serious look at it, for it makes the problem worse, not better.

Widgets over systems

By focusing on widgets over systems and plans, the illusion is created that you can just "buy" energy efficiency on an incremental basis,  as an add-on, without any plan. You give daddy an Energy Star rated shaver for Xmas, and ma gets an energy star rated hair dryer, and soon all will be well, except it does not work that way.
As in any crime, you look for means, opportunity and motive, and in this case, various vendors of energy efficiency related products and services need a gullible public that keeps on buying their bunkum. Energy companies use incentives to retain customers in order to serve their shareholders well. Finance companies live from commissions on the loans they write, so more sales is better, never mind if it makes financial sense for the property owners. Meanwhile, mathematically energy efficiency is a death trap because of diminishing returns.
The only thing that makes sense from an investment point of view, and needs to have priority in any retrofit plan is maximal Site Derived Renewable Energy (SDRE). SDRE alone materially reduces GHG-emissions, and adds value if it can be financed from energy savings well within its economic life, so that the property owner (investor) enjoys the benefit of a long tail of no energy bills.

Your Energy Star credit card

Various supposedly "green" finance programs make things worse. They propose typically "self-liquidating" financing, preferably with "no money down," to lure you in. The vendors of efficiency equipment have refined their marketing pitches to a fine art, to focus on sales that are easy and frictionless, and can be justified by "energy savings,"
so they pick high value projects first. "Self-liquidating" and "zero money down," are the catch phrases, which should warn you of incoming torpedoes.
PACE financing is still in some sort of limbo, and it should be as long as it is abused for the purpose of financing energy efficiency, if far more valuable SDRE projects are available.

Your energy company to the rescue

It is in the nature of energy companies that they make money by selling more energy, To them "energy efficiency" is something that helps them retain customers, moreover our society seems to tolerate a "greenwash," as if "energy efficiency" of a fossil fuel system is "green," even though the opposite is true. Where is the FTC when you need them? Many if not most energy companies have programs to help their customers become more energy-efficient, and energy providers are happy to offer you financial incentives, in order to retain you as a customer longer.
One of the more hopeful initiatives is the enabling of co-investments of energy companies with customers, which could help with SDRE projects. When done wisely, energy companies can make a return two ways: in financial terms, and in improved utilization of their assets. In NY the public service commission is now looking into this under the REV initiative. That double payoff should facilitate a reasonable deal being offered to consumers.

Where's the plan?

A building, a home, any property is a system, and moreover it is a four-dimensional system - it lives for decades. It contains mechanical systems that may need replacing at several points during its life span. Roofs may need to be replaced, windows added, and siding replaced, insulation added, etc.
Only renewable energy (SDRE) will materially reduce GHG-emissions, but it will also replace energy bills... it will move energy from liabilities to assets, and in many, many cases you will end up with a capital improvement that is paid for in under 10 years, but eliminates a big portion of your energy bills for 30 years (or more).
Thus there are two dimensions to an energy plan for a property:
  • one is about the source of the energy, which is a make or buy decision, i.e. generate your own energy with SDRE, or buy your energy (electric, gas, oil).
  • the second part is about passive measures, and energy efficiency. It should be noted that many decisions in this area will be different if you use more SDRE vs. fossil fuels. The fossil fuel path and the SDRE path are not interchangeable, which makes it imperative to plan ahead, lest you design yourself into a corner.
In short, a long-term energy plan is needed for two reasons, one because there are engineering interdependencies, that will impact on your decisions, and two is to truly understand the economic value you are creating on a life-cycle basis. These decisions have an effect for sometimes 20-30 years, and ultimately the life of the property. That tankless hot water heater may be a great idea if your only option is heating with oil, but if you can do geothermal or solar thermal, you need a domestic hot water store to harvest energy, and that same tankless hot water heater would be a horrible waste of money.

The emperor's new clothes, energy efficiency?

The pursuit of "energy efficiency" means that you do not think about the long-term energy strategy for your property, but you plunge in and start making what you already have more efficient, which means you may be throwing good money after bad, if in fact there were economical options of switching a good part of your energy requirements to renewable on-site generation.
In principle, if this approach were valid, you would proceed in the way of least cost/most benefit, and simply do the highest return projects first. This fails because of diminishing returns, and it fails again, because you may be designing yourself into a corner if you lock yourself out of some of the most valuable projects, but don't realize it, because you started from the wrong premise and without a plan.

Whole house, holistic energy planning

When you start looking at your property as a system, and start looking at the long-term issue of energy, your first stop should be a financial model of the situation, for the default model should be that you want to switch to renewables as much as possible, while financing it with the energy costs you displace, and helped with any applicable incentives, tax abatements, etc.
A good energy audit will give you your options, and the Home Energy Yard Stick may give you a hint for where to look. However, you don't want to fall prey to the vendors who will all pitch you on their systems, and never do you want to get yourself locked in to any vendor just because they do a "free" energy audit.
The basic framework becomes how to add the most value to your property. This is very different from the lowest cost approach of energy efficiency. The long-term value of your property should guide your decisions.

Conclusion: SDRE should come first

Energy Efficiency does not exist in isolation, but only in the context of the chosen generating technology: fossil fuels or on-site renewable energy, and the Home Energy Yardstick does not help sorting this out, which can lead to costly mistakes.
SDRE is first priority when we pursue property value adding strategies, energy efficiency is only complementary, and the Energy Star rating system detract the attention to components instead of the whole property.

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

What Energy Efficiency Said to Renewable Energy

The tortoise of energy efficiency (EE) always makes sure that we never get more than half-way there, and tries to convince Achilles that by the time he catches up, the tortoise will be ahead again, and he'll never win, when in fact the reverse is the case. Renewable energy (RE) in the broadest sense is Achilles, who only by fallacious logic could fail to outrun the tortoise of energy efficiency. The truth is, only renewable energy can reduce GHG-emissions in a permanent way, EE creates at best a temporary reduction, at the cost of extending the use, thereby ensuring an overall increase, wherever renewable energy would have been an option. Notice how politicians like to claim we're half-way there towards some climate change objective, and at the same time they endorse policies (energy efficiency), which positively guarantee that "half-way there" is as far as we will ever get.
As noted in my comments on the Draft 2014 NYS energy plan,  if we want to achieve 50% GHG-reductions by 2030, let alone 80% reductions by 2050, we cannot afford to do a single project that does not at least get us a 50% GHG reduction. To continue doing "energy efficiency" projects will allow the tortoise of energy efficiency to waste Achilles' time with his logical conundrums. Projects that reduce GHGs by 15-25% are the norm in energy efficiency land and won't cut it. Every single project has to produce over 50% GHG-reduction, and that means that aside from the analytical problems of energy efficiency as an end in itself, we are now entering a time when we simply cannot afford to bother with it anymore, and serious investment in renewable energy should begin.

Lewis Carroll and Energy Efficiency

In short, it's very much like Lewis Carroll's story, What the Tortoise said to Achilles, the only way for the tortoise to win against Achilles is by keeping him wrapped around the axle with philosophical paradoxes, going all the way back to Zeno's paradox. The tortoise argues Achilles can never catch up. The same logic drives the adoption of energy efficiency as policy. It makes no sense, but everyone believes we'll always be halfway there before renewable energy catches up. Except we'll never get beyond halfway there.

George Orwell and Energy Efficiency

It gets truly Orwellian when we get to newspeak like "the Fifth Fuel" (Amory Lovins), and "Negawatts," and to top it all off the  energy efficiency "Ministry of Truth" is the EDF's "Investor Confidence Project." Their masthead says: "Enabling Markets for Energy Efficiency Investment," and a little further on they claim they want to deliver "investor ready energy efficiency projects," a complete non-sequitur. Like any other confidence man, it all starts with some variation of: "I'll be very honest with you." And nobody seems to notice that the only reason for all these extra assurances about proper "energy efficiency" projects, is the fact that it is not at all an investable asset, for the simple reason of diminishing returns. So never mind how many bells and whistles you add in order to provide "investor confidence," anyone who understands the basic financial/economic reasons for diminishing returns on investments in "energy efficiency" would run for the hills.
Obviously, if you own the plant or the building, you want to run it as efficiently as possible, regardless if it runs on fossil fuels or on renewable energy, but that is an operational savings, not a capital investment, unless it is part of the original installation. Energy efficiency, in spite of popular myth and various rationalizations, does not generate electricity, and it is not--in its own right--an investable asset, in spite of all rationalizations to the contrary. Yet a whole industry has grown up around this fallacy. This is the sub-prime sector of the environmental business.

Incrementalism and energy efficiency

Along with the thinking of "energy savings" comes the financial fallacy of the payback period of the equipment based on marginal energy savings, which is a meaningless approach since the only thing that matters is how the equipment adds value to your building, which may be quite a different issue if you take all factors into account. This whole mistaken logic is reinforced by programs like Energy Star, and widget-level incentives.
The incremental approach of energy efficiency and "energy savings" is a paradise for the sellers of widgets, for property owners end up spending money like drunken sailors and the model guarantees they'll never get there. This is not investment, this is squandering money on a losing proposition in the strictest mathematical sense: diminishing returns. Energy efficiency spending always starts out with some window caulking, and some screwy light bulbs, and progresses to bigger and bigger projects, until finally it culminates in the latest absurdity, the solar PPA.
In the end, the energy efficiency approach leads to a dead-end and then property owners become desperate enough to try some solar PV and "save" a bit on electricity. It seems to be the lowest cost renewable option. Here in the North East, the proportions of electricity to heat & hot water might be in the range of 30% versus 70%, and property owners are now backed into a corner where saving 10% on those 30%, which is their electrical bill, seems like a good deal. In short, they will pay good money to lower their energy bills by 3%. If they do get a PPA, they'll be paying for it for 20 years, and not only that they will give up most of their usable roof space, without realizing that if they had done a proper plan, they might have gotten a solar thermal installation instead, which could have wiped out most of their heating/cooling and hot water, and reduced their electrical bills at the same time. Solar thermal gives you 5 to 8 times more energy per square area than solar PV.

"Green Finance," wolf in sheep's clothing

If the business of finance is: Who has equity that we can steal today? Then "green finance" is a winner. It delivers extortionate finance solutions under the beneficent guise of  being "green." Currently, what goes for "green" finance is Asset Backed Lending on the basis of marginal energy savings, and therefore it drives least cost quick payback equipment sales. The commercial pressure is for solutions that can be offered on this basis as "self-liquidating" propositions.
The net result of this is cherry picking of the clean energy retrofit potential of a property. If you were to look at a whole property, the process of converting to renewable energy is only profitable if it is undertaken as a comprehensive retrofit plan. If the property has been cannibalized by various partial "energy efficiency" solutions, this will undermine a renewable energy retrofit in several ways. It will undermine liquidity, and financial carrying capacity of the property, and from an engineering point of view, ill-conceived partial solutions are likely to get in the way of a more profound clean energy retrofit. Write-offs will result, and this is how the tortoise would win against Achilles. The incrementalism of energy efficiency derails the real solutions of renewable energy.

Profitable Renewable Energy Retrofits

Once you look at properties as an energy investment, it is immediately clear that on-site clean energy generation moves energy from liabilities to assets. Furthermore, if you can integrate multiple technologies in a property, very often legitimate synergies can be accomplished which offer compound returns. In terms of payback, it may mean that two components which by themselves have 7 and 8 year paybacks, suddenly combine to offer a 6 year payback. For example, geothermal heat pumps offer 400% efficiency because they extract free BTUs from the subsoil by heat exchange, but they require some electricity to run. But if you can generate your own electricity with wind, sun or water, you suddenly have a virtuous circle, including storage in the form of pre-heated hot water. These compound returns with renewable energy make it a proper investment, as opposed to the diminishing returns of energy efficiency.

Regressive non-profits in renewable energy

Sadly, the non-profit sector which should be leading the way, is mostly regressive, with NRDC and EDF completely buying into the usurpation of the green objectives by energy efficiency, and oblivious to the fact that they have made themselves into a customer retention program for the fossil fuel industry. The Sierra club is only marginally better, hawking solar leases or PPAs, which are soon to be the sub-prime scandal of the green business.
And then there's always Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE), which is a smart way to finance the big capital bulge of renewable energy conversions, but the movement has been completely hi-jacked by the energy efficiency cult. This results in the classical problem of financing short term fixes with long term money, but it gets worse, because in its confrontation with the GSEs the PACE camp, barely snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, by hitching their case to energy efficiency, which misses the central point of PACE, namely that with an on-site clean energy retrofit, you are moving energy from liabilities to assets, and therefore this type of an investment permanently raises property values. And of course you'll do it as efficiently as possible, but that's entirely secondary. The decision is always between fossil fuels and renewables.

Renewable energy retrofits and Green Underwriting 2.0

Only renewable energy can permanently displace fossil fuels, and energy efficiency is a stalling tactic. For evident reasons, we must shift towards more renewable energy retrofits. That's where the great GHG-reductions are, and that's also where asset appreciation is, thus the economic justification, and the legitimate finance opportunity in which the asset appreciation accrues to its owners, instead of being ripped off by the financiers, as in the case of energy efficiency "investments," which benefits widget manufacturers and energy companies, not property owners. Green finance needs to grow up.
What will tie it all together is a proper green underwriting standard, which incorporates a target of at least 50% GHG-reduction, along with the correct economic analysis of a whole property from the standpoint of make-or-buy (energy), and focused on asset appreciation by generating as much onsite renewable energy as possible, energy efficiency should bring up the rear.

Saturday, May 3, 2014

Improving Real Estate Value with Clean Energy

Real estate value can be enhanced with clean energy, while improving building resiliency at the same time.  Prioritizing energy savings tends to reduce resiliency: you are investing more money in being increasingly dependent on the given energy source. The economic magic lies in the fact that energy generated on-site with clean energy technology moves energy from liabilities to assets permanently, and creates a degree of independence from the grid. After that installation is paid for... no more bills for at least that amount of energy. Even partial energy independence can save you a lot of hassles in the next storm or the next blackout.
Recently, I had a chance to listen to some presentations about infrastructure projects, in the context of the Rebuild by Design competition, focused on resilient rebuilding in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, which reinforced how value creation is central to problem solving in this area. This observation has a parallel in energy policy. We are entering a paradigm shift from cost containment in the form of energy savings, to productive investment in the form of renewable energy.

Value, not cost

One of the speakers at the event mentioned above, Marcel Ham, of IMG/Rebel, speaking about the financing of such projects, emphasized that nothing gets resolved as long as people are focused on cost. What makes financing solutions possible is focusing on value. This is a core concept, and not only for infrastructure projects and large public/private partnerships, for it explains the failings of a few decades of energy policy, when everyone is talking about energy savings, and nobody seems to realize that you can't save yourself rich.
When you focus on cost reduction, you negotiate yourself into a corner every time, because energy savings, cost containment, is a game of diminishing returns. In other words, focusing on cost reinforces the problem, while focusing on value allows solutions to emerge. The best I can figure it, the problem started with oil crises of the last century, when the discussion centered very much on the notion that a dollar spent on reducing demand gave us more bang for the buck than a dollar spent on increasing supply (building another power plant). Then brilliant rationalizations emerged, like Amory Lovins with his "fifth fuel," and later the introduction of the concept of "negawatt." All of these were attempted rationalizations to make "investment" in energy efficiency palatable, and no-one appreciated that it simply extended the time horizon, and made the problem more intractable. Certainly, now that the environmental (climate change) aspect is ever more important, it is increasingly clear that the only thing that will do is reducing our carbon footprint, and that involves switching to renewable energy. The money spent making it more economical to continue CO2 emissions, is a write-off if it has not paid for itself already.

The bottomless pit of energy savings

From my experience as a home owner (19 years), I learned in retrospect how costly it is to serially make decisions about "energy efficiency," and "energy savings." Despite popular mythology to the contrary, "energy efficiency" is not an asset class, and not an investment proposition in itself. It is an operational savings. Energy savings is also a secondary objective, not a primary one, as is readily evident from the fact that if you compare a fossil fuel system with a clean energy system, energy efficiency is present in both solutions. However, while some of the "energy savings" measures may be the same in both solutions, some of them will be significantly different, therefore, if you start on the fossil fuel track, it is not easy to switch over to clean energy. Conversely, you need to think ahead about where you want to end up, and that includes deciding the timing for replacing major infrastructure, typically boilers, A/C, water heaters, and the like, along with elements of the building envelope etc. The value-destruction trap of energy savings is to the benefit of energy providers (customer retention) and the sellers of various gadgets and products that can "save" energy, not the buyers of them. Simply put, "savings" is a limit function, which is technology dependent, but at any given state of technology, there is a limit, and, in the case of burning fossil fuels, you can never do better than extract 100% of the energy value of your fuel. Very likely it is uneconomical to achieve that much, and you will be faced with rapidly climbing cost, and rapidly diminishing returns for subsequent investments. One of my favorite examples in NY is always the NYSERDA MPP program, which sets a band of incentives that can be achieved above a certain level of "savings." This method forces building owners to bundle multiple energy savings strategies, whereas some would seem uneconomical if undertaken serially,  and in practice it results in massive capital destruction, and ensures suboptimal and even regressive outcomes. Owners are simply gaming the system, and try to score the maximum incentives for the least amount of investment, and in the process commit their property to the path of diminishing returns that is "energy efficiency." There are armies of would be "energy efficiency" consultants to help them do this.

Successful transitions to Clean Energy are holistic

Simply put, the owner of a property has a financial interest in maximizing the value of that property over time. As a society, we have an interest in minimizing green house gas emissions. Unfortunately, various government programs and incentives have a tendency of being counterproductive and regressive, but the market is inexorably moving towards a time when net-zero construction becomes the norm. Therefore, the job of the property owner is to maximize building value by minimizing fossil fuel use, and to pay for the conversion largely from energy savings, so as to end up as close to net-zero as they can. Ideally the first step in a conversion should make the property 50% or better energy independent. The closer you can come to net-zero (i.e "near" zero), the better the assurance of retaining the value of the property. The more energy bills buildings have, the more their values will be depressed as net-zero becomes increasingly normative. I would venture to guess that buildings that do not generate at least 50% of their own energy will see their values deeply depressed 10 or 20 years from now. And, if your building cannot make that conversion, you might as well start of selling it now. The principal mechanism of why the transition to clean energy is constructive towards building values, is because on site clean energy generation moves energy from liabilities to assets.

Resiliency, clean energy and real estate values

As an important side issue, building resiliency goes up with every implementation of on-site clean energy generation. This is the principal reason New York City's "NYC Clean Heat" program has been so extremely regressive, and has produced massive capital destruction. By diverting the attention to fuel switching, just at a time when the transition to clean energy was indicated, capital was diverted to unproductive purposes, and the resilience of the city as a whole was disastrously imperiled as a result of becoming over dependent on a single fuel, when the opportunity existed to diversify energy sources with renewable energy.

Debunking "the fifth fuel," "negawatts"

These popular terms, starting from Amory Lovins' coining of the phrase "the fifth fuel," meaning energy savings, and energy efficiency, and later enriched by the hilarious concept of "negawatts," have created an analytical distortion that has permeated policy making at all levels, not to mention world-wide, but which lacks any solid theoretical foundation. In fact it is a pre-determined financial and environmental disaster, and it entrenches the problem more, and certainly does nothing to solve it. Delaying the sinking of the Titanic by five minutes is hardly a worthwhile investment.
"Energy Efficiency" loans, along with solar PV PPAs/leases are likely the subprime scandals of green finance. They extract value, but they don't add value, because they are typically justified on a least cost for marginal energy savings selection by payback period, and produce suboptimal decisions for the property and society at large. This is especially painful in the case of PACE finance, which was designed for marshalling the capital investments needed to switch to clean energy (hence the name: Property Assessed Clean Energy), but instead it is squandered on same-old, same-old "energy savings" projects that add no real value.

Clean Energy, paid for by energy savings, enhances real estate value

If we know the problem is GHG-emissions, and clean energy reduces or eliminates GHG-emissions, while energy savings reduces emissions nominally but lowers the cost of continuing emissions, so that it aggravates the problem in the long run... clearly the only rational priority is figuring out how we can upgrade our buildings to the maximum extent to clean energy. Interestingly, clean energy investments because they are an enhancement to the fixed building stock, move energy from liabilities to assets, and should be evaluated properly based on a thirty year capital budgeting analysis of the property as an energy asset. Once we use this methodology all investment priorities change, because three decades of no energy bills provide powerful financing ability for the required capital investment up front. The appropriate finance tools are increasingly available, such as PACE financing, even if PACE is often times misused to finance energy efficiency projects. Minimizing GHG-emissions, by maximizing on site clean energy generation, while paying for it from energy savings, should be the new policy goal. Property owners ignore this at their own risk, because on the margin, in new construction, net-zero is becoming the norm.

Conclusion

In conclusion, there are two problems that are holding up the show for the transition to a clean energy economy:
  • Prioritizing energy savings when only on-site clean energy generation will make a difference in GHG reductions (as well as create greater resiliency in buildings).
  • Making decisions based on marginal energy savings and payback of the equipment, instead of based on a 30 capital budget for energy for the property, which would immediately reveal the asset-enhancing value of clean energy by moving energy from liabilities to assets.
The clean energy future will forever be put off, if we continue to prioritize energy savings, but on site clean energy generation will reduce GHG-emissions and enhance real estate values.

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

New York's 2014 Energy Plan - GHG-reductions ahead

Green Finance reform should be the central focus of our climate change efforts, for under proper analysis reducing Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions goes hand in hand with improving property values. The 2014 New York State Draft Energy Plan indicates a paradigm shift. The stated benchmark objectives are:
  • 50% GHG emissions reduction by 2030
  • 80% GHG emissions reduction by 2050
There is only one way to get anywhere close to that, and that is with massive adoption of renewable energy (RE), and in particular Site Derived Renewable Energy (SDRE), and green finance needs to catch up. Typical energy efficiency (EE) projects have been all the rage, tend to be in the range of 15-25% improvement. We will now need to focus on projects of 50% GHG emissions reduction and higher, otherwise we are dragging down the numbers. It also means we should focus on the demand side, for you can only go so far on the supply side, and green power generation is not an overwhelming case yet, but on the demand side, the economics are very powerful. It will just take time to develop the right opportunities. The draft 2014 NY State Energy Plan is an auspicious beginning for this paradigm change.

GHG reductions goals can only lead to more SDRE

I published my comments to the draft energy proposal on Scribd, here:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/217064925/DaBx-Comments-on-NY-State-2014-Draft-Energy-Plan


The good news is that the commitment to these GHG emissions reduction goals forces a radical change towards renewable energy.

50+% GHG emissions reduction: change happens on the margin

  1. Change happens on the margin
  2. We have limited means. (Think bringing $10 or $20 billion to a trillion dollar problem).
  3. Therefore on the margin projects with better than 50% reductions in GHG emissions compete against projects with 15-25% "energy savings" and nominally GHG reductions in the same range. We should ignore the fallacy that natural gas reduces GHG emissions. Therefore we should furthermore only entertain SDRE projects with over 50% GHG-reductions.
  4. Once we model a retrofit on the basis of a 30 Year cash flow model, it will be clear that there are plenty of SDRE projects that can achieve the 50+% GHG reductions target, and there is tremendous potential for sound projects that will be financially superior to EE projects. EE investment projects have been typically evaluated on component-level payback from marginal energy savings, sometimes in a bundled approach like NYSERDA's MPP. However, under a proper cash flow analysis, the long tail of 30 years of no energy bills will in many cases overcome the initial capital hurdle. Proper finance can do the rest.
Again, if we want to make progress towards these New York State energy goals, we cannot afford EE projects, but only SDRE retrofits. And, we cannot do it without reforming what now goes for green finance, and develop a more robust green finance 2.0.
The case for energy efficiency as a goal in its own right has been thoroughly discredited, and we'll be in the business of teaching old dogs new tricks. Building owners and many "consultants" in energy efficiency have been trained to look for opportunities for marginal energy savings. The approach has been helter-skelter, and a seemingly more systematic approach like NYSERDA's MPP just hides the problem and makes it worse. Many savvy building owners have always known that energy efficiency does not add up. It does not - simply because of diminishing returns. No matter how much you spend, you never get "there," and nobody knows where "there" is anyway. The new paradigm is: Green finance achieves GHG reductions with SDRE investments paid for by energy savings.
There is an unstated assumption in the current policies that focus on energy efficiency. That assumption is that you can always switch tracks later, and implement renewable solutions. This is not true, because in any given property, you will have often designed yourself into a corner you cannot get out of without writing off a good part of the work you have done in the name of EE. So the switch often becomes prohibitive if you did not plan ahead. Hence the need for proper planning first, and that means a 30 year technology plan for SDRE for any property.

From components to whole building projects

The other major change must be to always look at whole buildings, or even blocks, districts, communities, regions, etc. A holistic approach is a must, and overall GHG reductions are the goal. For the time being this is made harder because incentives are still at the component level, not at the building level. Component level incentives cause accountants to engineer energy systems, with disastrous results. The Baucus tax proposal has the right idea of one single incentive, based on GHG reductions, but, as drafted, it leaves out the demand side, which is the most important part. The idea is right but should be extended to the demand side.

Green Finance reform

Green finance in one part is the financing of major capital projects, and that is proceeding apace. What today goes for "green finance" for energy retrofits is completely compromised by the over emphasis on Energy Efficiency, and in most cases just a rebranded form of ABL (Asset-Backed Lending), against energy savings, all of which goes back to Amory Lovins' idea of the "fifth fuel," and the subsequent mythological creation of the "negawatt," leading us to think that "energy savings" is an investable asset. This approach is like painting lipstick on a pig, and in the extreme it takes forms like EDF's "Investor Confidence Project," which encapsulates these easily falsifiable, and unfounded assumptions that EE is somehow additive towards the solution into a seemingly impressive framework that unfortunately rests on a false assumption.
PACE financing compounds the problem even further by misusing the beautiful investor protections it provides on EE projects, and thereby undermining its own long term relevance. And PACE will become irrelevant if it does not refocus to over 50% GHG-reductions, and that means SDRE projects. The name PACE means Property Assessed Clean Energy, and its potential is now being wasted on EE projects, which merely serve to prolong the agony.
The over-emphasis on energy efficiency is completely self-destructive, and analytically unsound, it lacks a basis in fact, both economically, financially, and environmentally. It is already being falsified in the market place by net zero construction, but for retrofits, as soon as there are significant securitizations of 50% and above GHG reduction financings, the EE investment craze will come to an ignominious end. The typical 15-25% "energy savings" from EE projects, which come with diminishing returns, i.e. no follow-on strategy, will inevitably make way for the 50+% GHG reduction projects which will offer compound returns, and an ever improving follow-on strategy, not to mention asset appreciation of the underlying property with every energy price hike.
The time has come for green energy finance reform. Once the analytics of Energy Efficiency are properly understood, the nomenclature "green finance" should be limited to SDRE projects with over 50% GHG reduction, and never for EE projects which are a financial and environmental dead end, and in effect an indirect subsidy to the carbon fuel industry. This shift automatically entails a new focus on maximizing asset values for building owners.

Education

Along with all of this, there is a massive need for education, and objective and independent information. While I was finishing up this blog, my partner, Bruce Lorentzen, EE, wrote to me as follows:
Last week  I was a judge of faculty and student research projects at Univ. of Bridgeport.  I was amazed that a professor with a PHD was presenting a study on microgrids and he was a proponent of PV.  This was alarming in that he had within his research, heat storage.  I challenged him on why he was wasting precious land and rooftops and only being 15% efficient.  He then admitted that perhaps solar thermal was better.  I then offered that with 400% efficient heat pumps, he had the opportunity to reduce pollution by at least 75% whereas PV only reduces by 15%.  We must educate the educators!!

Conclusion

Energy Efficiency is not a proxy for GHG reductions, and should not be a policy goal. It is an indirect subsidy to carbon fuel, and achieves the opposite of what we want. The new paradigm for green finance is achieving GHG reductions with SDRE investments paid for by energy savings.