For the last few decades, there has been a gradual shift in understanding that the end of the fossil fuel era is at hand, and not necessarily because we run out - although there are of course vested interests who would like to sell us every last drop of oil, and every last lump of coal, not to mention whatever gas remains. The paradigm shift however, is about understanding that the fossil fuel era is at an end because of diminishing returns. In short the unintended consequences like CO2 emissions and other problems are the manifestations of that shift. The cost of the commodities themselves is going up because of increasing scarcity, and the cost of the various nefarious side effects are weighing more heavily all the time as well.
The other side of the shift is the increased creativity in the development of alternatives, both in terms of the technologies and in the complete frame of reference in which we operate with energy. However this process is nowhere near complete, and in the transition sometimes ridiculous misalignments come into play. One example of this is the storage of Domestic Hot Water which I have been writing about on this site. We are only just starting to understand that renewable energy means that that buildings can generate some or all of their own energy, and that the most typical renewable sources, wind and solar, are both of the peak load variety, i.e. they produce power when the weather is favorable, not necessarily when we turn on the switch. Therefore energy storage is an absolutely crucial design element in harnessing these sources. This issue has been part of the smart grid conversation for years, and we continuously hear how expensive batteries are.
Meanwhile the buyers of tank-less hot water heaters (unless as a backup heat source), are throwing out the batteries with the bathwater, or, to be more precise, by eliminating storage of Domestic Hot Water (DHW), they are eliminating the cheapest form of energy storage available in residential living, and one that is of crucial importance if we ever want to make our buildings energy independent with renewable energy. The focus in this case is on eliminating the BTU loss from hot water storage, never mind the fact that with modern insulation, these losses are negligible, and yes some space is being reclaimed. This however ignores the fact that hot water is the most natural energy storage solution, which we get practically "for free," if we realize that with various renewable technologies it is cost justifiable as part of the hot water provisioning for the premises.
This particular issue is quite absurd in its consequences. There are super efficient tank-less hot water heaters, with Energy Star labels, and they are marvelous, if heating hot water were the problem, except it is not, and therefore tank-less hot water heaters are not the solution. Rather, they are the problem. The absurdity becomes complete when we realize that there are tax incentives for tank-less hot water heaters, which means that the US government thus provides a subsidy for the postponement of our renewable energy economy by another twenty years or so, and building owners are torpedoing their best options for making their buildings energy independent. In short the very concept of the super efficient tank-less hot water heater, is of value primarily if the only option for a residential building is in consuming energy, and economizing by consuming less of it. This is the utility model, and the utility companies, gas and electric, as well as the oil companies represent this economic model, and the traditional incentives are all geared to energy efficiency more so than to energy independence.
The new model however is that energy is becoming a technology business, and buildings can increasingly generate their own energy locally, at the building level. As a result the economic value of DHW storage is now as an energy store, which enables the use of peak-load generating technologies like wind and solar. This solves the storage problem only in the form of heat, which is the largest energy demand in residential construction. In as far as the demand is for electricity, some form of battery is unavoidable if you want to rely on peak power, and come either partially or wholly off the grid.
As I have seen demonstrated over and over, the plumbers of the world do not understand that Hot Water is now going to be a freebie, and a happy by-product of this shift in energy infrastructure, in which buildings increasingly produce their own energy. This shift is particularly dramatic in existing residential construction, but that is exactly where the greatest economic opportunity is. Accordingly, if the government wants to achieve energy independence, the incentive programs, from tax incentives to special finance programs (such as the Multi-family Performance Program from NYSERDA was one), need to take the new realities into account.
The mere accumulation of energy efficiency, which seems the only option in the utility model, is also the best guarantee that we stay in the fossil fuel economy forever, and therefore would be disastrous. Yet almost all incentive programs, with the best intentions, make this totally self-defeating assumptions. Energy independence does not happen unless you plan for it. The renewable energy economy and the utility model are two radically different economic constructs, and "energy efficiency" as a goal remains the child of the utility model, and will prevent us from ever getting to energy independence and a renewable economy. As a dear friend pointed out recently: "You cannot cross the Grand Canyon in two easy steps." We are now at the point that we need to wean the baby from the breast of the utility companies and the oil companies, and the baby will cry at first, but to become independent, it is absolutely necessary. And there is money to be made from this energy conversion, once it is properly understood as a business opportunity.
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