Saturday, May 4, 2013

Off The Grid In Four Easy Lessons #1

Getting Off the Grid may sound easy, but it's hard to do, and the major reason it is so hard is financial, not technological. One of the major problems is that energy efficiency and green energy are being confused in the priorities. The majority of government programs in fact are unintentional (and in some cases intentional) subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, and the vendors of energy equipment make use of the confusion to sell us all more of their energy efficiency equipment, on the pretense that it is 'green,' and the wrong use of energy efficiency causes the indefinite postponement of the green energy economy. We want green energy and not green paint.
Off the grid living may be a marginal phenomenon, but it If you check out the Wikipedia article in the link above, you'll see that already in 2006 there were reports that the number of homes that were off the grid had been growing at 33% a year for 10 years. This off the grid trend is now rooted in seriously green energy, though not in all cases, and we should separate the survivalists from the regular economic approach choosing green living simply because it makes more economic sense. Today as I'm writing this, the Wall Street Journal just had a major article about Stealthy Green Homes. Off-Grid Real Estate is the thing to watch. Off the grid homes are no longer a marginal phenomenon. Anything growing at 33% for 10 years or more bears watching, and by the time WSJ reports it is becoming main stream, you can rest assured it is main stream already. The important point here is that this is mostly about new construction, and that of course gives you a lot of options to design things right from scratch. But, since there are more old homes than new ones, retrofitting is more important, and it is also more difficult.

Green energy confusion: avoid retrofits that invest in fossil fuel slavery

There is a general confusion that somehow energy efficiency and green energy
off the grid with green energy, not green paint
Green Energy, not Green Paint
are synonymous, and they are not. Energy efficiency will never add up to green energy, and if you are now consuming fossil fuel-based energy, and you start investing in energy efficiency, you are merely ensuring that you are never coming off the grid. You are merely investing your own money in becoming a better customer to your existing energy suppliers. In short, this is an issue of mixing up the priorities. The first decision is how you get your energy, fossil fuel (from the grid in the widest sense), or green energy in whatever form. Then you need to look at how you get there, and this is where efficiency comes in. With subscription fuels (fossil fuels and derivatives), efficiency pays off in reduced bills down the road, in green energy generation, efficiency pays off in reduced capital costs, because you need a lower installed capacity, and improved project returns.

Stop going off the grid with an energy star tankless hot water heater

The tankless hot water heaters is the poster child of the Energy Star program, and it is one of the worst investments you can make. This issue is emblematic for why efficiency should be considered second, not first. Since hot water is such a large portion of your energy bills in residential living, this is an easy target, and the federal government makes it worse by providing tax incentives for this type of Energy Star equipment, but home owners are in many cases stealing from themselves in the long run with lower asset appreciation. Assuming the tankless hot water heater is more efficient, all you are getting is lower energy bills, but you will still have energy bills. Such incremental investment in energy efficiency make you a better customer of your utility, at the cost of reduced appreciation of your major asset, your house. The shareholders of your utility thank you.
To see why, all you have to do is a 30 year CAPM evaluation of the project, which should be your planning framework for ALL energy decisions in your house. A solar hot water heater is a bigger investment, but once you take the 30 year horizon into account, you will see that it results in near ZERO energy bills for hot water (and yes, you could use a tankless hot water heater for backup, but a regular gas or electric water heater will do). Solar also has NO maintenance costs, while your tankless hot water heater probably needs to be replaced in 10 or 15 years. And by the way that backup heater does not need to be energy star rated, that's a waste of money. You'll use that backup heater perhaps for 15-20% of your BTU requirements for hot water.
Your tankless hot water heater may reduce your energy bills somewhat, perhaps even 15 or 20%. In other words, if you do your 30 year CAPM evaluation, you will have one or two replacements of that tankless hot water heater,  and 15 or 20% lower energy consumption, but the price can still go up or down with energy prices, and the cost of the grid (the DELIVERY cost of your gas or electric) keeps rising faster than inflation. Even the best tankless hot water heater can only reduce your energy bills, not eliminate them.

Off the grid with CAPM, not equipment payback

Before you start doing anything about energy upgrades in your house, make yourself a 30 year financial model based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), taking energy costs into account, and then figure out exactly what your best options are. If people did their sums right and did not allow the IRS to make their investment decisions, they'd be a lot richer, and their homes worth more. Next time a visiting salesman comes to your home, if he's pitching his latest energy-saving thingmajig with a superior payback period, and worse yet, with tax incentives, katy bar the door and do your own analysis first. He is stealing property value, value appreciation of your property, with your signature, even if he is armed with tax incentives and the blessings of the energy star program. A tankless hot water heater does not green energy make, nor will it get you off the grid.

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