NYC Clean Heat Amounts to Capital Destruction

Recently I demonstrated on this blog why NYC Clean Heat is regressive with respect to Clean Air compliance, because it diverted buildings to natural gas, that would have been perfectly suited for renewable energy deployments. The typical buildings that were (and in some cases still are) burning #6 oil, are ideal candidates for renewable energy conversions. In many cases that would have produced financially and economically superior outcomes for building owners, and certainly for the city in terms of Clean Air, and for tenants in terms of quality of life. Green House Gas Emissions could be reduced far more than is now the case, and NYC Clean Heat was an unqualified victory for the carbon energy industry. Next time we should get our fossil fuels facts, before we argue any fossil fuels pros and cons.

There are several other aspects to the matter, which make the picture even far worse. There is no argument that natural gas burns cleaner than #6 or #4 oil (and even than #2 oil), and produces less CO2 and fewer particulates. However, the reality is that the distribution losses of methane are 30+%, and the uncontrolled release of methane into the air from fracking ("unconventional gas"), add even more environmental burden, since methane is a far worse Green House Gas than CO2. Increasingly, our natural gas is "unconventional gas." Fossil fuels are the problem, and "cleaner fuels" are mostly simply an obfuscation.

Greenwashing Fossil Fuel

As has been pointed out in many ways on this blog, the greenwashing by the power industry is the single biggest PR stunt to halt the conversion to renewable energy. The argument is not over types of fossil fuels. it is a matter of renewable alternatives. With the evidence cited here, and more, it is clear that dubious claims were used to promote natural gas as a clean fuel, and a "bridge fuel," it is mostly a diversionary tactic, and it is absolutely imperative that we transition to renewable energy wherever it is economically feasible. Switching to different forms of fossil fuels is window dressing, not progress.

There are many more opportunities in the city's aging building infrastructure than are now being exploited (see my DaBx PlaNYC2020), because government programs are steering owners away from them. In a more general sense, it is also clear that the obfuscation that results from promoting energy efficiency in fossil fuel based systems makes them more competitive, and fuels the demand, crowding out investment in renewable energy. So energy efficiency of fossil fuel systems is not part of any green agenda, except simply if it is the only thing you can do and arguably better than the alternative.

Methane leaks and more from Fracking

How big is the problem of natural gas (methane) leaks from fracking? As usual the answers depend on who you ask. The article cited here is probably conservative and reports an extreme finding of 14% of production (output) in losses from fracking. And that is only the current leaks, during extraction. What no one knows is how much seeps out in the years following production. As the article notes, it will take a long time before we have an accurate fix on this issue, but it definitely takes away some of the charm of natural gas. The more alarmist view of methane losses from fracking can be found in many places, if you want to arrive at a balanced view. The fossil fuel industry talks of 2% or less, and more independent opinions are as high as 10% of all gas produced.

The only encouraging information is that while methane is anywhere from sixty to one hundred times more destructive than CO2, it dissipates in the atmosphere within 20 years, while CO2 builds up forever. Be that as it may, renewable energy would reduce our green house emissions faster than the natural gas bonanza, and the element of leakage takes away some of the charm of natural gas.

The environmental degradation from fracking may well be equivalent or worse than the toxic sludge from the scrubbers of coal-fired power plants. The jury is still out on this part of the story.

Green House Gas Emissions from Distribution

The distribution loss of Methane (Natural Gas), as you can see in this article, 5%-10% leakage from distribution may be the range in the UK, and according to the calculations cited there, anything over 2.8% leakage may be enough to offset the "clean" advantages of natural gas over coal, which is the dirtiest fuel. In the US losses may be lower. EPA estimates that the losses of natural gas are distributed as follows: 37% from transmission/storage, 24% from distribution, and 27% from production. Overall EPA estimates that globally the losses of methane from leakage are 3.2%, which would largely wipe out the advantages over coal or oil.

Green House Gas Emissions from Burning Natural Gas

Here is where Natural Gas has it over coal and oil, producing far fewer problems, starting with less CO2, but also fewer particulate emissions, as well as various other toxic exhausts, including mercury. This is what allows New York City to claim that a switch from #6 and #4 oil to natural gas would produce reductions in Green House Gas emissions. Evidently NYC is the point of consumption, and the fact that gas is cleaner burning seems to carry the day. However, it should be obvious from even this brief overview, that this may appear to be true locally, it is not true on a complete system-wide view of the matter. Hence the drive to gas conversions is little more than window dressing, particularly in light of the alternatives that are not being pursued.

Government Sponsored Capital Destruction

In short, the drive to convert from oil to gas is largely futile, and to the extent that it is forcing building owners to prematurely change boilers, it amounts to government sponsored capital destruction.

Most importantly, the opportunities discussed on this site, for green energy generation in buildings, which would permanently improve building values, and make huge contributions to Clean Air, are basically being disregarded as a result of the dubious environmental benefits of natural gas, and passing up that financial opportunity alone is yet another form of capital destruction, because with while fossil fuel is an ongoing operating expense, truly renewable, green energy moves energy from liabilities to assets, and permanently improves building values.

Conclusion

In short, NYC is missing the boat by rushing into a pseudo solution that merely shuffles the deck chairs on the Titanic of the fossil fuel economy, that has precious little real environmental benefit to offer in terms of reducing Green House Gas Emissions, except for some very short-term window dressing and greenwashing of the fossil fuel economy, while it passes up the long-term economic potential of substantially reducing Green House Gas emissions, greater building resiliency, and improved economic competitiveness that would result from a greater emphasis on switching to renewable energy within the city. Given the alternatives, the campaign amounts to government sponsored capital destruction.